For weeks, political observers have said the race for Congress on Staten Island was one of the most competitive in the country. However, our new exclusive poll shows Michael Grimm may have a much larger lead than initially expected. NY1′s Courtney Gross filed the following report.
No, it’s not a trick.
In our new exclusive NY1/Capital New York/Siena College Poll, Congressman Michael Grimm has a commanding 19 point lead over his Democratic opponent, former Councilman Domenic Recchia.
Fifty-three percent of likely voters in next Tuesday’s election say they’re supporting the Republican, while 34 percent are with Recchia. Five percent are behind the green party candidate, Hank Bardel, and only seven percent are still undecided.
Just six weeks ago, our poll showed these two candidates were running neck and neck—44 percent to 40.
Things have clearly changed.
“This campaign has really not done anything good for Domenic Recchia. Voters don’t like him. This campaign has caused voters to like Michael Grimm more,” says NY1 pollster Steven Greenberg.
Our new poll shows the more voters have gotten to know Recchia, the more they don’t like him.
In fact, more voters say they have an unfavorable view of the Democrat than they do of Grimm—46 percent to 43 percent.
Grimm is facing a 20-count federal indictment, and his trail begins in February.
Nonetheless, 48 percent of voters still have a favorable view of the congressman versus 31 percent for Recchia.
Almost a third of likely Democratic voters are crossing party lines to support Grimm, but support for Governor Anrew Cuomo is still high in the district. He beats his Republican rival Rob Astorino 56 percent to 33 percent.
Voters perhaps have become turned off by Recchia, because of ads like this that highlight Grimm’s indictment.
Half of likely voters believe Recchia has run the more negative campaign.
“Rarely have we seen a candidate trailing by this much this late in the campaign come back to win it,” Greenberg says.
We should note two-thirds of these likely voters told us there is no chance they will change their minds.
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