New York City officials have been monitoring that wind, wary that strong breezes could mean that Spider-Man will not soar and Woodstock from “Peanuts” may not get his bird’s-eye view.
But late Wednesday afternoon came a glimmer of hope: Earlier weather predictions of winds that would exceed the city’s limit for flying balloons — a rule that kicks in if winds are 23 miles per hour or more and gusts exceed 34 m.p.h. — had been scaled down. New predictions as of 4 p.m. on Wednesday called for Thanksgiving morning winds of 20 m.p.h. with gusts of 30 to 35 m.p.h., according to the National Weather Service.
The final decision will be made on Thursday morning by several agencies, based on guidelines that were created after a Cat in the Hat balloon hit a lamppost at 72nd Street and Central Park West in 1997, knocking down part of the pole and injuring four spectators.
Forecasting winds in the city is challenging because of the “canyon effect,” with the tall buildings along the parade route creating a tunnel, said Joe Picca, a meteorologist at the Weather Service.
“Tomorrow before the event we will make a determination,” said James P. Hall, the Police Department’s chief of patrol, as he stood before Snoopy on 77th Street on Wednesday afternoon.
Around 5:30 p.m., Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg stopped by to declare his love for Snoopy, his favorite, and marvel at the skill of the 1,100 balloon handlers he was confident would be marching on Thanksgiving.
“If one takes off and they don’t let go, they’re going to keep going up?” Mr. Bloomberg asked Amy Kule, the executive producer of the parade.
Weather Service representatives will be on hand with the police command units stationed along the parade, Chief Hall said, and each balloon will have a sergeant marching alongside equipped with a special weather monitor. Even as rain drummed down it seemed possible that Kool-Aid Man and his friends would make it aloft. “It looks good, it looks very good,” he said.
Still, balloons can rise as high as five stories and be difficult to control in wind. Balloon drama is a perennial parade plague. Felix the Cat once caught fire. Bullwinkle sprang a leak, spewing helium from his nose yards from the finish line. And giant M&Ms, Sonic the Hedgehog and SpongeBob SquarePants have all crashed into objects on the street.
Ms. Kule said handlers were trained throughout the year on how to maneuver the inflatable behemoths. They must attend a balloon class and drills, be physically fit and weigh more than 125 pounds.
It is not easy. One former balloon handler is Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly, who wrangled an inflated turkey when he worked at Macy’s as a teenager. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, he recalled a tense moment when the floating fowl was rambunctious, almost lifting handlers off their feet.
“At the end, you’d just be a few people holding on to the balloon, running back and forth,” he said. “Now it’s much more professional, much more scientific.”
Protocol for a misbehaving balloon involves reeling it lower (as was done for all the balloons on a windy Thanksgiving in 2006, a year after the M&Ms brought down a lamppost, injuring two sisters). A rampant balloon would be turned down the nearest west-running side street before being deflated — if need be by cutting it open, Chief Hall said.
The balloons have not always been so tightly controlled. Until 1933, some of them were released after the parade. Before liftoff, they were given an extra shot of helium and calibrated to expel gas slowly so they could drift for days before they expired. Residents along the Eastern Seaboard and ships at sea were put on alert by radio broadcasts. In 1930, a reward was given for a balloon’s capture and return.
But only once since the Thanksgiving parade began featuring balloons in the 1920s have the clowns, marching bands and floats not had a helium-filled accompaniment — in 1971. (The parade was canceled for several years during World War II.)
Historically, the blocks near Times Square have been particularly difficult for the balloon handlers, with the open area allowing winds to whip with added force. Today, the balloons are tied to vehicles.
The wind rules apply only to the group of 16 giant balloons, including Pikachu and Ronald McDonald. The smaller balloons, like the Macy’s stars and a baseball, are not subject to such strict guidelines.
But if the wind howls stronger than predicted, the big balloons will not be paraded.
“It wouldn’t make Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving,” said Sydney Adams, 9, as she held her 1-year-old sister, Jessie, watching the balloons be blown up on 77th Street. “It’s probably our favorite part, everybody loves balloons.”
Their brother, Samuel, 10, chimed in: “I mean, who doesn’t?”
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