New York Stays Ahead of Florida in Population

The figures, estimates for July 2013, showed that New York had about 19.65 million residents, while Florida had 19.55 million, with Florida gaining more than 230,000 people from a year earlier. New York’s growth was more modest, with some 75,000 new residents.

Those numbers represent the continuation of longstanding trends in population, as new foreign-born immigrants and other transplants flock to Florida while New York’s growth continues to suffer under the weight of stagnant or declining populations in upstate areas.

Jan K. Vink, a specialist with the Program on Applied Demographics at Cornell University, which reviews Census Bureau estimates and supplies raw data to the agency, said the figures for July indicated that Florida would most likely surpass New York in early 2014, perhaps as soon as March.

“It’s to be expected,” Mr. Vink said, adding that “if trends hold in 2014, Florida will take over.”

Andrew A. Beveridge, a professor of sociology at Queens College who studies the census, said that Monday’s numbers showed a continuation of long-term domestic and international migration patterns, which would soon push Florida into the No. 3 slot, “barring some cataclysm.”

There was some good news for New York, Mr. Vink added, saying that the state’s population growth had remained steady from 2011 to 2013, and that Florida’s had slowed somewhat from its explosive rates a decade ago.

The figures also showed somewhat anemic growth in the Northeast — a nine-state region running from Pennsylvania to Maine — and larger gains in the South, a broader geographic region that includes Texas, the nation’s second-biggest state, with more than 26 million people. California, with some 38 million residents, remains the nation’s population leader.

The national population also continued to grow, albeit slowly, to a new high, 316 million, according to the Census Bureau.

William H. Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution, said that the national rate of growth could be a cause of concern, especially with persistent economic uncertainty. “We’re still in the doldrums in a lot of ways, and one of them is our national population growth,” Mr. Frey said, adding, “People have been holding off in having kids, and that shows in these numbers.”

And while states like Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Texas continue to gain residents, Mr. Frey said, New York’s steady gains were encouraging for the state. “People are holding fast,” he said.

Census estimates, which are based on birth and death records, tax records, international migration and other factors, are released annually. More detailed information on state and national populations will be released in January.

The change in population can have broad effects, including guiding the size of congressional delegations and the apportionment of billions of dollars in federal funds.

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