Mr. de Blasio, a Democrat who is currently the public advocate, leads his Republican opponent, Joseph J. Lhota, a former chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, by 45 points among likely voters, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. That lead, which has remained remarkably consistent in multiple polls over the last six weeks, suggests that Mr. de Blasio could win the most sweeping victory in a mayor’s race since 1985, when Edward I. Koch was re-elected to a third term with a crushing 68-point margin of victory over his opponents.
Mr. de Blasio’s overwhelming lead in poll after poll has sent students of local politics scrambling for the history books. Although Mr. de Blasio is unlikely to surpass Mr. Koch’s re-election margin, he is flirting with a record win for a non-incumbent; that record is currently held by Abraham D. Beame, who won election in 1973 with a 40-point victory margin, the largest in an open race since five-borough elections began in 1897.
There is one more televised debate this week, and still a little more than a week until the Nov. 5 election, but voters seem to believe the race is over: a whopping 87 percent of likely voters say they expect Mr. de Blasio to win. Fewer than 1 in 10 likely voters are still uncertain about their vote choice, according to the poll.
A victory by Mr. de Blasio would usher in a significant shift at City Hall: despite the fact that Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans in New York City, no Democrat has won a race for mayor since 1989. “This election shapes up to be a perfect storm for that streak to be swamped,” said Donald P. Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute, who added that the “outcome seems almost certain.”
Throughout this year’s campaign, Mr. de Blasio has missed few opportunities to remind voters that Mr. Lhota is a Republican and to suggest that, despite Mr. Lhota’s support for abortion rights and same-sex marriage and even the legalization of marijuana, he is a sympathizer with the Tea Party movement. The poll makes clear why that message, which Mr. Lhota says is misleading, is effective as a campaign tactic: in New York City, three-quarters of likely voters, including 4 in 10 Republican voters, view the Republican Party unfavorably.
Mr. Lhota has repeatedly tried to portray himself as progressive on social issues and conservative on fiscal issues. His first television commercial in the general election campaign noted his common ground with Mr. de Blasio, while criticizing the Democrat for wanting to raise taxes and supporting “reckless government spending.” But the poll suggested that likely voters saw little difference between Mr. Lhota and other members of his party. Fifty-five percent said he was a “typical Republican,” while just 32 percent said he was a “different kind of Republican.”
The recent federal government shutdown did not help Mr. Lhota: 47 percent of likely voters said that the shutdown made them more likely to vote for a Democrat, while only 6 percent said it prompted them to back a Republican.
But Mr. de Blasio’s party affiliation is not his only strength, the poll found. His campaign themes emphasizing income inequality, improving public education and creating housing seem to be resonating. He continues to enjoy ratings that any elected official would envy, with 62 percent of likely voters viewing him favorably, and only 22 percent unfavorably. Nearly half of likely voters said Mr. de Blasio’s greatest strength was his ability to understand the needs and problems of people like them. And more than half said they thought that he would bring about change that would make the city better, while only 13 percent thought that change wrought by a de Blasio administration would make the city worse.
As is always the case for any election, an unexpected last-minute event or revelation could alter the dynamic, shift the momentum or dampen turnout. But nothing Mr. Lhota has done, including television commercials and a strong performance in last week’s debate, has improved his standing with voters thus far. In fact, the poll suggested that the more voters get to know Mr. Lhota, the less they like him: his unfavorable rating has climbed at a faster rate than his favorable rating since the last Times/Siena poll in early October.
There is also an apparent enthusiasm gap: most Democratic voters say the race for mayor has been interesting, while most Republican voters say it has been dull.
Mr. de Blasio won the Democratic primary by running as the most liberal of the major candidates in the field; he has proposed raising taxes on high-income New Yorkers and has supported greater oversight of the Police Department. Nonetheless, one in five Republicans are supporting him for mayor, suggesting in follow-up interviews that they are looking for change after eight years with Rudolph W. Giuliani as mayor followed by 12 years with Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg.
“I think de Blasio’s policies will be a change for the better from the Bloomberg era,” said Duane Dowden, a 33-year-old Brooklyn Republican who is a student in social work. Oswald Ramotar, a 51-year-old Queens Republican, agreed, saying, “I’m voting for de Blasio because I think he would bring better changes than Lhota would, like creating more jobs.” And Erick Washington, a 59-year-old Brooklyn Republican, said, “I’m not voting for Lhota because I feel that would be the same as voting for the Giuliani administration.”
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