Friday, October 4, 2013

How the Poll Was Conducted


All interviewing was conducted by the Siena Research Institute at Siena College in Loudonville, N.Y. Interviews were in English or Spanish.


The telephone numbers called, both landlines and cellphones, were from random digit dialing samples provided by Survey Sampling International of Shelton, Conn. Each borough of the city was represented in proportion to its share of all telephone numbers. Random digits assured access to listed and unlisted numbers alike. The completed samples were adjusted to assure the proper ratio of cellphone-only versus landline-only and dual-phone users. Within each landline household, one adult was designated by a random procedure to be the respondent for the survey.


Interviewers made multiple attempts to reach every phone number in the sample, calling back unanswered numbers on different days at different times during the day and evening.


The combined results have been weighted to adjust for variations in the sample relating to borough, sex, race, Hispanic origin, age, education and (for landline respondents) number of adults in the household.


In theory, in 19 cases out of 20, results based on such samples will differ by no more than three percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by seeking to interview all residents in the city. Results based on smaller subgroups have a larger sampling error. Shifts in results between polls over time also have a larger sampling error.


Likely voters, designated using factors like registration, interest in the campaign and intention to vote, have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.


In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of public opinion may introduce other sources of error into the poll. Variations in the wording, order and translation of questions, for example, may lead to somewhat different results.


Michael R. Kagay of Princeton, N.J., assisted The Times in its polling analysis. Complete questions and results are available at nytimes.com/polls.





Yahoo Local News – New York Times




http://newyork.greatlocalnews.info/?p=15031

via Great Local News: New York http://newyork.greatlocalnews.info

No comments:

Post a Comment